House Majority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) is rumored to be plotting a redux of his failed 2015 run for Speaker of the House, according to The Hill.
But an in-the-know Republican with whom RS Insider spoke has doubts about McCarthy’s supposed efforts, pointing to the blow-up that tanked his attempt to succeed then-Speaker John Boehner three years ago, and private polling of McCarthy’s district, which shows him in trouble this year.
According to this individual, McCarthy is deluding himself if he thinks the allegations of an affair with former Rep. Renee Ellmers that condemned to death his bid for Speaker in 2015 won’t return to haunt him.
Not only do some House conservatives apparently still see what allegedly took place between McCarthy and Ellmers as morally problematic, they also loathed Ellmers personally and viewed McCarthy as naturally inclined to be overly-friendly (literally) to much-disdained moderates in the caucus.
There is also the potential concern that if rumors about McCarthy resurfaced, it could fuel characterizations of Republicans, broadly, as morally suspect in view of alleged behavior on the part of President Trump.
But moreover, McCarthy’s alleged bid for Speaker might be more hype than reality because like most California Republicans, he is under extreme electoral pressure heading into November thanks to the adverse impact 2017’s tax reform bill had on California taxpayers.
Add to this the unpopularity of President Trump in the Golden State, and a surge in voter enthusiasm among younger and Democratic-leaning voters, and there are good reasons to think McCarthy might not be in a position to vie for the Speakership in the first place. Despite the fact that he holds a district rated as R+14 by the Cook political report, McCarthy appears to be in jeopardy as things stand today.
That McCarthy could be in real electoral trouble is one reason some California political operatives say he’s appeared to be jostling for position as the successor to White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, should Kelly be forced out. They point to McCarthy drawing Trump back to the topic of border security in a meeting regarding DREAMERS where Trump appeared to be siding with Democrats on the subject (something that favorably put McCarthy on the radar of hardcore, pro-Trump immigration hawks), and McCarthy evidently currying favor with Trump by supplying him with his favorite Starburst candy.
Kelly’s position perpetually seems to be in jeopardy, with McCarthy listed as one of two surviving possible successors, should he be ousted. (Gary Cohn, another name, is no longer in the mix, while Corey Lewandowski is generally viewed as an unsafe choice that Cabinet members would oppose, should Trump seek to bring him to the White House).
Given that, and the political trends at hand, whether McCarthy is truly planning a bid for Speaker or not, it seems like the smarter play would be to aim to replace Kelly, if and when he is fired by Trump or resigns in frustration. Unlike Kelly, McCarthy at least seems to have figured out how to ply the President with sugar. Maybe that’s something Kelly should try the next time Trump threatens his favored personnel, or kicks off a major-league temper tantrum.
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